India’s relationships with Russia and China cannot be reduced to a single geopolitical bloc. Trade, security and technology pull policy in different directions.
Energy security and Russia
Russia’s share of Indian crude imports rose from below 3% in 2021 to around 40% in 2023 as discounted barrels became available. Supply shares later fluctuated with sanctions, freight, discounts and payment constraints. For India, diversification and delivered cost matter more than political symbolism.
China: partner, competitor and concentration risk
China remains a major source of electronics, machinery, chemicals and industrial inputs even as border tensions persist. “China Plus One” can attract manufacturing to India, but replacing deep supplier ecosystems requires logistics, skills, quality and scale—not slogans.
What BRICS does and does not mean
BRICS expands diplomatic coordination and encourages local-currency settlement, but it is not a common market or monetary union. De-dollarisation is gradual because invoicing, financial depth, convertibility and trust reinforce incumbent currencies.
The investment transmission
Energy sourcing affects inflation and margins. Supply-chain policy affects capital expenditure. Export controls and sanctions affect technology access. Investors should analyse each channel rather than make binary “West versus BRICS” bets.
The bottom line: India’s multi-alignment is an attempt to preserve strategic choice. Its success will be measured through secure energy, lower import concentration, export competitiveness and access to technology.
Data references: PPAC crude import reports; Ministry of External Affairs BRICS trade data; Ministry of Commerce trade statistics; PRS petroleum-sector analysis.